...and they're off!

The rules:

I finally decided to deposit a small roll on euro site and see how far semi-proper bankroll management can get me.

The last time I tried this, I basically took 100$ and peaked at around 6500$ in under a month before a disasterous run at 25/50 LHE wiped out almost half my value. A few bad days at mid-stakes PLO took care of most of the remainder. I believe I managed to cash out about 1200$ or so before going utterly busto.

Anyway, this time Im going to try to avoid taking (too many) overly huge chances and hope to emulate Bryan Townsend's stop-loss strategy, where I simply walk away if I manage to dump more than a specified # of buy-ins and try again another day.

Other variables; Im going to be investing some cash in sportsbetting under very specific circumnstances. Specifically; MMA fights that I consider to have an unnaturally good line. Sportsbetting in general is a losing proposition, and a huge number of profitable poker players go broke betting on sports. I have had extremely good results with sportsbetting on MMA however, seriously something like a 150-175% ROI, but I rarely place bets because I rarely find fights worth betting on. That said, when I find them, I will be investing from my euro roll on them.


Ok, quick overview of the last few days.

I deposited 300$ on Saturday. By Sunday AM I was up to about 225$, entirely from PLO. I no longer try to shortstack midstakes games, now I prefer to sit with full buy-ins at microstakes.

The decision to lay off the shortstacking is a direct result of the nature of EU online players. Traditionally, per Slotbooms original vision at least, one would pop aces with a shorstack and be able to knock out 80% of the limpers and isolate one caller with so much dead money in the pot, that a post-flop shove for the remainder of ones stack is mathmatically sound no matter how scary the board is.

Its my opinion that this methodology is no longer sound. It simply is no longer realistic to expect 80% of limpers to fold, least of all Euros, because they simply love to gamble, and because they are someone innoculated against this tactic. They simply prefer to gamble and see a flop.

Not to say there isnt value in shortstacking some of the more hyper-aggro games out there, but one must consider reversing the roles; limping in with premium double suited connectors and calling overbets from aces looking to isolate might have more equity at this point.

*Anyway*.

For the time being, Im simply full-stacking microstakes and *generally* avoiding taking shots. Not always, but generally. This might change if my non-poker income improves radically but for the time being, I cant afford to go busto like I used to.

Sunday evening I basically broke even trying at microstakes for a few hours and got impatient, taking 120$ to a 2/4 game. I basically made a position steal in the cutoff with double suited mid connectors, like 6d7d4c8c or so. The button calls, which I felt was mostly for position and possibly represented a reasonable pair, JJxx-KKxx, so now there is like, around 60$ in the pot.

Flop was 3h3dTd. I lead out for about 40$, leaving maybe 60$ in my stack to semi-bluff at a diamond turn or river.

Button calls, which obviously I didnt want. Button also had a deep stack however which made me wonder if perhaps button was simply holding aces and looking to dump if a diamond came..

Turn was a Jc. Check check.

River was a 8d. I shove with my 60$ into like a 120$ pot, and button actually tanks a minute before calling with Kd2dAs5c, something along those lines.

So yeah, we had someone calling a pot size bet with pretty much total rags and calling a C-bet so he could chase a non-nut flush.

Lesson learned; short stacking severely inhibits ones ability to play correctly against people who arent really concerned with the damage you can do to their stack.

Anyway, at this point I decided to invest 275$ of my stack on A. Silva at -165 (shitty line, wtf? -150 everywhere else but depositing/withdrawing from every other online sportsbook is a fuckin nightmare, so I'll just deal).

Its a good investment. Hendo is great against lumbering fighters with shitty mobility, Silva is the effective opposite of that. Hendo usually fights at 205 or so, this fight is at 185. Hendo will be in absolute and constant danger this entire fight, Silva is utterly mobile on his feet and completely ferocious off his back. -165 is absurd, this line should be -210 to -280. People just love to invest in Hendo, so be it.

Roll:

+100