ok, i have decided on some rules (better late that never)
first off, i wont sit with an amount greater than 10% of my roll at any table. this is a figure on the sketchy side, standard practice is to work with about 5% of my roll, but by god i have needs.
if i can afford to modify that guideline, i will, lets leave it at that.
sportsbetting is not subject to these limits. anything goes with mma fights but my edge is strong enough to justify going broke, as my money rarely goes in bad.
to whit; ive heard some fairly compelling arguments that hendo might take it down tomorrow. personally, i still dont agree with the analysis, and i truly believe my money is real good on silva, but i decided to hedge by putting 275$ on okami. hes fighting evan tanner, a man who has spent the last 2 years of his life or so in a beer coma. you cant get your money in better than that.
unfortunately i have a terrible history with hedges; usually my first bet monies and my hedge tanks, leaving me in negative numbersland. might happen tomorrow too but mathmatically, these fighters are undervalued, and you either bet when the money is right or give up as i see it.
anyhoo, even if i lose both bets tomorrow i still have about 75$ to rebuild with, and thats not so bad.
and hell if either of them win, i have about 450 - 500$, which puts my ROI this week at like 150$-200$ aka 50%-75%, which is outrageously good.
and needless to say, if they both money, then i have about 900$, which is 600$ profit aka 200% ROI, and puts me on target for concentrating on .50/1 games.
update:
after the okami bet, i had about 75 in my account. 1 failed MTT, 1 failed SNG, later, i dragged my sorry ass into a .50/1 plo game with half a buyin.
flopped top set on a Kd6d2c board, got it all in on a diamond turn (bluff yes) against some tard with an OESD. yeah he called with an OESD. anyway, of course he hits and im on vapors until my bets come through tomorrow, or dont.
also, i did some quick and ugly math today and since its taking me considerably longer to get access to some funds on bugsy than i anticipated, i might well cash out anything over my orig 300$ buyin tomorrow to cover some fairly pressing debts.
we will see.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
steaaaadyyyy...
nice eve. joined a .50/1 table full stacked, first hand i defend the BB with low-middling connectors, single suited (clubs) against fairly obvious overpairs on the button and SB.
flopped a gutshot and top pair, made 2 pr on the turn and called a donk bet from a dude who showed down aces unimproved when i filled up on the river. button tabled QQJJ.
up 120 on the first hand, oh hell yah. didnt run well after that, left the table up like 60$ in the end, as it had tightened up considerably.
finally got some HU NLHE action, at .25/.50. bought in full stacked, of course some douche has to try to shortstack me with 20$. i felted him twice and he bounced. had a fairly uninspired run at microstakes limit and broke even in some sng's, and called it a night 90$ up.
so off a 300$ deposit, i got 275$ riding on silva and another 350$ in cash.
im considering a bet on okami as well.
flopped a gutshot and top pair, made 2 pr on the turn and called a donk bet from a dude who showed down aces unimproved when i filled up on the river. button tabled QQJJ.
up 120 on the first hand, oh hell yah. didnt run well after that, left the table up like 60$ in the end, as it had tightened up considerably.
finally got some HU NLHE action, at .25/.50. bought in full stacked, of course some douche has to try to shortstack me with 20$. i felted him twice and he bounced. had a fairly uninspired run at microstakes limit and broke even in some sng's, and called it a night 90$ up.
so off a 300$ deposit, i got 275$ riding on silva and another 350$ in cash.
im considering a bet on okami as well.
slow and steady
fairly standard night. played .25/.50 plo for maybe an hour or so and ended up about half a buyin. lost half my stack on the first hand in a fairly standard race, broke even for maybe 30 or 45 minutes, then flopped the second nut flush against a very poor player with just under a full stack.
potted the flop and the player called, there was a timing tell that said to me that he either had a set or a baby flush. got it all in with the turn making a four flush on board, and he snapcalled. river brick so either his babyflush or set was no good.
up about 50$ total after that hand, broke even a few orbits and left.
no action the entire time at the .25/.50 HU plo table i was sitting it, which was frustrating.
joined a 20$ 5 handed extreme turbo, where i managed to go broke on the first hand semi bluffing a rag flop with A7o on the button. got reraised by a euro with A9o and failed to improve, busted despite neither of us having a pair or even a respectable hand.
obv did not play that well but i was correct in my read that he wiffed the flop too, so im not going to come down too hard on myself.
played 2 other 5$ extreme turbo sngs, both 5 handed. went out 3rd in one, 1st in the other for 21$.
decided to practice my LHE at .50/1 for a bit and was very satisfied with my play. broke even for the hour but i felt i made very strong reads and wasnt behind too often.
with rakeback for the nights efforts i ended up at +261 cash, showing about a 40$ profit for the nights work.
discussing a side bet with my friend chris this weekend; basically we are going to both deposit an arbitrary amount at bodog and see who can reach a goal first. winner gets 150$.
really not an easy bet to win, least of all against chris, who is extremely good at going on spectacular tears at 2/4 NLHE. details to come.
potted the flop and the player called, there was a timing tell that said to me that he either had a set or a baby flush. got it all in with the turn making a four flush on board, and he snapcalled. river brick so either his babyflush or set was no good.
up about 50$ total after that hand, broke even a few orbits and left.
no action the entire time at the .25/.50 HU plo table i was sitting it, which was frustrating.
joined a 20$ 5 handed extreme turbo, where i managed to go broke on the first hand semi bluffing a rag flop with A7o on the button. got reraised by a euro with A9o and failed to improve, busted despite neither of us having a pair or even a respectable hand.
obv did not play that well but i was correct in my read that he wiffed the flop too, so im not going to come down too hard on myself.
played 2 other 5$ extreme turbo sngs, both 5 handed. went out 3rd in one, 1st in the other for 21$.
decided to practice my LHE at .50/1 for a bit and was very satisfied with my play. broke even for the hour but i felt i made very strong reads and wasnt behind too often.
with rakeback for the nights efforts i ended up at +261 cash, showing about a 40$ profit for the nights work.
discussing a side bet with my friend chris this weekend; basically we are going to both deposit an arbitrary amount at bodog and see who can reach a goal first. winner gets 150$.
really not an easy bet to win, least of all against chris, who is extremely good at going on spectacular tears at 2/4 NLHE. details to come.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
pretty gross night
incredibly ugly night honestly. started out with some .10/.20 HU plo. someone was sitting with half a buyin, so i sit with a full buyin and the match begins. first hand, flopped the nut straight on a rainbow board, we end up all in on the turn, board pairs on the riv and he tables top set for the house.
ok thats cool.
i rebuy and lose a handful more races, end up with about 3.50 of the 2nd 20$ buyin left, when i basically crank up the aggression PF and c-bet pretty much every single flop, as i notice he is playing absolutely any 4 cards for any amount PF. this strategy works, quite well, and simply through stealing blinds and C-betting indiscriminately i work my way up to about 12$. i eventually take the chip lead by potting draw heavy boards then firing a third barrel when no 3 flush appears.
this combined with my absurd aggression factor pays off, as shortly after taking the chip lead we end up getting it all in the middle PF.
i held KKxx single suited (hearts). flop was KcTc4s, turn was a Qc (uh oh) and river was a 6h or something similarly brickish.
he tabled KdTd9d3s. just complete garbage. lucky i didnt have aces tho.
anyway despite felting him, i was still down 6$ due to rake, which is really unacceptable. basically we paid about 16$ in rake for maybe 45 minutes of play. thats outrageous. thats almost a full buyin. even with 33% rakeback (thank christ), its almost impossible to be profitable with that much money leaving the table so quickly.
i really need to figure out what the smallest stakes i can play are that provide reasonable rake-to-profit ratios, which is unfortunate since according to standard bankroll theory, i cant afford to play them!
still and all id rather go busto from playing too high than go busto from paying the house a full buyin an hour. there is no profit in that equation, none. at best i break even.
anyway, i decided to play some 6 handed 2/4 LHE as the game was luridly juicy. no one was giving a fuck about prehand selection, and thats basically how i lost half my roll in about an hour.
example:
TT on the button, 4 limpers then the CO raises. i RR, and get 3 callers. CO caps, *and we see the flop 5 handed*.
KsQsTc. jesus christ. check check then seat 5 bets, CO raises, i RR, 2 folds, seat 5 caps, CO calls.
turn is a Jd. greeeeeeat. incredibly, it gets checked to me. i bet and get called *everywhere*, river is an Ad.
seat 5 bets. CO and i call, seat 5 tables 9d5d.
it just got worse from there. people were opening UTG with 35o, calling my RR in LP with AKo, and the flop would be A24 rainbow.
the final straw for me was when i opened in LP with Ac6c against a few limpers. flop was T77, one club. check to me, i bet, 2 callers. turn is a Qc. i bet, 2 callers. river is a 3c, check to me, i bet, i get RR by seat 6, i tilt-RR obv, call the cap, and get shown Q7 for the house.
at this point i left the table.
with rakeback i was down to about 135$ at this point (plus my silva wager which may or may not bear fruit).
i decide that its time to either double up leave myself just enough to play a nightly MTT or two, so i sit at 1/2 NLHE with half a buyin.
i go completely card dead for about 25 minutes, occasionally thieving blinds to stay even, when i defend the BB against what was almost certainly a positional steal with J9o.
flop is 579, 2 spades, i check. LP donks a pot size bet, i shove. LP tanks for maybe 15 seconds then calls. turn 7, riv 9, and im back to even.
LP suggests he had an over pair, and 'got primad'. i suspect hes telling the truth but he could just as easily had a 7 or AK.
anyway, fucking nerve wracking experience over all.
with rakeback im at +225. so down about 20$ last night.
tonight i think im going to try some HU plo at .25/.50 and see how badly rake impacts winrate.
kinda sucks tho because im not comfortable stacking off when its just under a quarter of my roll, but im going to have to adapt and deal with it if i expect to be profitable overall.
if all goes well and silva comes through, i *should* be up to about a grand this weekend, which would allow me to do full buyins at .50/1 HU PLO and NLHE, which i think is a very profitable target range for me.
ok thats cool.
i rebuy and lose a handful more races, end up with about 3.50 of the 2nd 20$ buyin left, when i basically crank up the aggression PF and c-bet pretty much every single flop, as i notice he is playing absolutely any 4 cards for any amount PF. this strategy works, quite well, and simply through stealing blinds and C-betting indiscriminately i work my way up to about 12$. i eventually take the chip lead by potting draw heavy boards then firing a third barrel when no 3 flush appears.
this combined with my absurd aggression factor pays off, as shortly after taking the chip lead we end up getting it all in the middle PF.
i held KKxx single suited (hearts). flop was KcTc4s, turn was a Qc (uh oh) and river was a 6h or something similarly brickish.
he tabled KdTd9d3s. just complete garbage. lucky i didnt have aces tho.
anyway despite felting him, i was still down 6$ due to rake, which is really unacceptable. basically we paid about 16$ in rake for maybe 45 minutes of play. thats outrageous. thats almost a full buyin. even with 33% rakeback (thank christ), its almost impossible to be profitable with that much money leaving the table so quickly.
i really need to figure out what the smallest stakes i can play are that provide reasonable rake-to-profit ratios, which is unfortunate since according to standard bankroll theory, i cant afford to play them!
still and all id rather go busto from playing too high than go busto from paying the house a full buyin an hour. there is no profit in that equation, none. at best i break even.
anyway, i decided to play some 6 handed 2/4 LHE as the game was luridly juicy. no one was giving a fuck about prehand selection, and thats basically how i lost half my roll in about an hour.
example:
TT on the button, 4 limpers then the CO raises. i RR, and get 3 callers. CO caps, *and we see the flop 5 handed*.
KsQsTc. jesus christ. check check then seat 5 bets, CO raises, i RR, 2 folds, seat 5 caps, CO calls.
turn is a Jd. greeeeeeat. incredibly, it gets checked to me. i bet and get called *everywhere*, river is an Ad.
seat 5 bets. CO and i call, seat 5 tables 9d5d.
it just got worse from there. people were opening UTG with 35o, calling my RR in LP with AKo, and the flop would be A24 rainbow.
the final straw for me was when i opened in LP with Ac6c against a few limpers. flop was T77, one club. check to me, i bet, 2 callers. turn is a Qc. i bet, 2 callers. river is a 3c, check to me, i bet, i get RR by seat 6, i tilt-RR obv, call the cap, and get shown Q7 for the house.
at this point i left the table.
with rakeback i was down to about 135$ at this point (plus my silva wager which may or may not bear fruit).
i decide that its time to either double up leave myself just enough to play a nightly MTT or two, so i sit at 1/2 NLHE with half a buyin.
i go completely card dead for about 25 minutes, occasionally thieving blinds to stay even, when i defend the BB against what was almost certainly a positional steal with J9o.
flop is 579, 2 spades, i check. LP donks a pot size bet, i shove. LP tanks for maybe 15 seconds then calls. turn 7, riv 9, and im back to even.
LP suggests he had an over pair, and 'got primad'. i suspect hes telling the truth but he could just as easily had a 7 or AK.
anyway, fucking nerve wracking experience over all.
with rakeback im at +225. so down about 20$ last night.
tonight i think im going to try some HU plo at .25/.50 and see how badly rake impacts winrate.
kinda sucks tho because im not comfortable stacking off when its just under a quarter of my roll, but im going to have to adapt and deal with it if i expect to be profitable overall.
if all goes well and silva comes through, i *should* be up to about a grand this weekend, which would allow me to do full buyins at .50/1 HU PLO and NLHE, which i think is a very profitable target range for me.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Running goot
Ran hot like the fuckin sun in a 5$ knock-out NLHE tourn.
17 entrants. When you felt someone, you get 2.50$ of their buyin, the remainder of their buyin goes to the prize pool. Then they have the option to rebuy.
For the first 30 minutes, I think I played 2 hands, doubling up with AKo against A7s and earning a KO bounty. I played stupid-crazy-squeaky tight for the next 30 minutes, and managed to double up with a set of 8's against AKo, which brought me into 7th place at the first break when the rebuy period ended, and earning me enough in bounties to basically be freerolling.
My luck was just off the charts for the second period; I believe I got in maybe half a dozen flips and each one held. 90 minutes into the tourn, I had half the chips in play.
Shortly after the second break, I called a position shove while HU with 77 v J8o.
77 held, and I took down 84$ for first place plus an additional 46$ in bounties.
Played a bit of PLO at microstakes and finished up half a buy-in at .10/.20.
Called it a night at around 8:00pm to study some low-stakes PLO theory and actually went to sleep at like 10:30pm, which is unheard of for me.
roll: +245
17 entrants. When you felt someone, you get 2.50$ of their buyin, the remainder of their buyin goes to the prize pool. Then they have the option to rebuy.
For the first 30 minutes, I think I played 2 hands, doubling up with AKo against A7s and earning a KO bounty. I played stupid-crazy-squeaky tight for the next 30 minutes, and managed to double up with a set of 8's against AKo, which brought me into 7th place at the first break when the rebuy period ended, and earning me enough in bounties to basically be freerolling.
My luck was just off the charts for the second period; I believe I got in maybe half a dozen flips and each one held. 90 minutes into the tourn, I had half the chips in play.
Shortly after the second break, I called a position shove while HU with 77 v J8o.
77 held, and I took down 84$ for first place plus an additional 46$ in bounties.
Played a bit of PLO at microstakes and finished up half a buy-in at .10/.20.
Called it a night at around 8:00pm to study some low-stakes PLO theory and actually went to sleep at like 10:30pm, which is unheard of for me.
roll: +245
...and they're off!
The rules:
I finally decided to deposit a small roll on euro site and see how far semi-proper bankroll management can get me.
The last time I tried this, I basically took 100$ and peaked at around 6500$ in under a month before a disasterous run at 25/50 LHE wiped out almost half my value. A few bad days at mid-stakes PLO took care of most of the remainder. I believe I managed to cash out about 1200$ or so before going utterly busto.
Anyway, this time Im going to try to avoid taking (too many) overly huge chances and hope to emulate Bryan Townsend's stop-loss strategy, where I simply walk away if I manage to dump more than a specified # of buy-ins and try again another day.
Other variables; Im going to be investing some cash in sportsbetting under very specific circumnstances. Specifically; MMA fights that I consider to have an unnaturally good line. Sportsbetting in general is a losing proposition, and a huge number of profitable poker players go broke betting on sports. I have had extremely good results with sportsbetting on MMA however, seriously something like a 150-175% ROI, but I rarely place bets because I rarely find fights worth betting on. That said, when I find them, I will be investing from my euro roll on them.
Ok, quick overview of the last few days.
I deposited 300$ on Saturday. By Sunday AM I was up to about 225$, entirely from PLO. I no longer try to shortstack midstakes games, now I prefer to sit with full buy-ins at microstakes.
The decision to lay off the shortstacking is a direct result of the nature of EU online players. Traditionally, per Slotbooms original vision at least, one would pop aces with a shorstack and be able to knock out 80% of the limpers and isolate one caller with so much dead money in the pot, that a post-flop shove for the remainder of ones stack is mathmatically sound no matter how scary the board is.
Its my opinion that this methodology is no longer sound. It simply is no longer realistic to expect 80% of limpers to fold, least of all Euros, because they simply love to gamble, and because they are someone innoculated against this tactic. They simply prefer to gamble and see a flop.
Not to say there isnt value in shortstacking some of the more hyper-aggro games out there, but one must consider reversing the roles; limping in with premium double suited connectors and calling overbets from aces looking to isolate might have more equity at this point.
*Anyway*.
For the time being, Im simply full-stacking microstakes and *generally* avoiding taking shots. Not always, but generally. This might change if my non-poker income improves radically but for the time being, I cant afford to go busto like I used to.
Sunday evening I basically broke even trying at microstakes for a few hours and got impatient, taking 120$ to a 2/4 game. I basically made a position steal in the cutoff with double suited mid connectors, like 6d7d4c8c or so. The button calls, which I felt was mostly for position and possibly represented a reasonable pair, JJxx-KKxx, so now there is like, around 60$ in the pot.
Flop was 3h3dTd. I lead out for about 40$, leaving maybe 60$ in my stack to semi-bluff at a diamond turn or river.
Button calls, which obviously I didnt want. Button also had a deep stack however which made me wonder if perhaps button was simply holding aces and looking to dump if a diamond came..
Turn was a Jc. Check check.
River was a 8d. I shove with my 60$ into like a 120$ pot, and button actually tanks a minute before calling with Kd2dAs5c, something along those lines.
So yeah, we had someone calling a pot size bet with pretty much total rags and calling a C-bet so he could chase a non-nut flush.
Lesson learned; short stacking severely inhibits ones ability to play correctly against people who arent really concerned with the damage you can do to their stack.
Anyway, at this point I decided to invest 275$ of my stack on A. Silva at -165 (shitty line, wtf? -150 everywhere else but depositing/withdrawing from every other online sportsbook is a fuckin nightmare, so I'll just deal).
Its a good investment. Hendo is great against lumbering fighters with shitty mobility, Silva is the effective opposite of that. Hendo usually fights at 205 or so, this fight is at 185. Hendo will be in absolute and constant danger this entire fight, Silva is utterly mobile on his feet and completely ferocious off his back. -165 is absurd, this line should be -210 to -280. People just love to invest in Hendo, so be it.
Roll:
+100
I finally decided to deposit a small roll on euro site and see how far semi-proper bankroll management can get me.
The last time I tried this, I basically took 100$ and peaked at around 6500$ in under a month before a disasterous run at 25/50 LHE wiped out almost half my value. A few bad days at mid-stakes PLO took care of most of the remainder. I believe I managed to cash out about 1200$ or so before going utterly busto.
Anyway, this time Im going to try to avoid taking (too many) overly huge chances and hope to emulate Bryan Townsend's stop-loss strategy, where I simply walk away if I manage to dump more than a specified # of buy-ins and try again another day.
Other variables; Im going to be investing some cash in sportsbetting under very specific circumnstances. Specifically; MMA fights that I consider to have an unnaturally good line. Sportsbetting in general is a losing proposition, and a huge number of profitable poker players go broke betting on sports. I have had extremely good results with sportsbetting on MMA however, seriously something like a 150-175% ROI, but I rarely place bets because I rarely find fights worth betting on. That said, when I find them, I will be investing from my euro roll on them.
Ok, quick overview of the last few days.
I deposited 300$ on Saturday. By Sunday AM I was up to about 225$, entirely from PLO. I no longer try to shortstack midstakes games, now I prefer to sit with full buy-ins at microstakes.
The decision to lay off the shortstacking is a direct result of the nature of EU online players. Traditionally, per Slotbooms original vision at least, one would pop aces with a shorstack and be able to knock out 80% of the limpers and isolate one caller with so much dead money in the pot, that a post-flop shove for the remainder of ones stack is mathmatically sound no matter how scary the board is.
Its my opinion that this methodology is no longer sound. It simply is no longer realistic to expect 80% of limpers to fold, least of all Euros, because they simply love to gamble, and because they are someone innoculated against this tactic. They simply prefer to gamble and see a flop.
Not to say there isnt value in shortstacking some of the more hyper-aggro games out there, but one must consider reversing the roles; limping in with premium double suited connectors and calling overbets from aces looking to isolate might have more equity at this point.
*Anyway*.
For the time being, Im simply full-stacking microstakes and *generally* avoiding taking shots. Not always, but generally. This might change if my non-poker income improves radically but for the time being, I cant afford to go busto like I used to.
Sunday evening I basically broke even trying at microstakes for a few hours and got impatient, taking 120$ to a 2/4 game. I basically made a position steal in the cutoff with double suited mid connectors, like 6d7d4c8c or so. The button calls, which I felt was mostly for position and possibly represented a reasonable pair, JJxx-KKxx, so now there is like, around 60$ in the pot.
Flop was 3h3dTd. I lead out for about 40$, leaving maybe 60$ in my stack to semi-bluff at a diamond turn or river.
Button calls, which obviously I didnt want. Button also had a deep stack however which made me wonder if perhaps button was simply holding aces and looking to dump if a diamond came..
Turn was a Jc. Check check.
River was a 8d. I shove with my 60$ into like a 120$ pot, and button actually tanks a minute before calling with Kd2dAs5c, something along those lines.
So yeah, we had someone calling a pot size bet with pretty much total rags and calling a C-bet so he could chase a non-nut flush.
Lesson learned; short stacking severely inhibits ones ability to play correctly against people who arent really concerned with the damage you can do to their stack.
Anyway, at this point I decided to invest 275$ of my stack on A. Silva at -165 (shitty line, wtf? -150 everywhere else but depositing/withdrawing from every other online sportsbook is a fuckin nightmare, so I'll just deal).
Its a good investment. Hendo is great against lumbering fighters with shitty mobility, Silva is the effective opposite of that. Hendo usually fights at 205 or so, this fight is at 185. Hendo will be in absolute and constant danger this entire fight, Silva is utterly mobile on his feet and completely ferocious off his back. -165 is absurd, this line should be -210 to -280. People just love to invest in Hendo, so be it.
Roll:
+100
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